A Review of My 2015 Predictions

A Review of My 2015 Predictions

This time last year, I posted my 2015 predictions for the year. Here’s a summary of how I did:

Here are my 2015 Predictions for the Arlington County Real Estate Market. To review my2014 predictions, click here.

Many of these will be similar to the ones from 2014 because I think the market will continue to improve.

 1. Interest rates WILL increase, probably to 4.5-5%. Many expected that to already happen in 2014, so I believe we will see a slight increase this year. Happily, I was wrong on this again this year. Second year in a row that everyone has believe rates will go up, but they didn’t. Rates are still in the low 4s.

2. More new construction, mostly single family homes, will hit the market. I also think we’ll see fewer lots go up for sale on the general market as many people are calling builders directly to try to sell their lots. Many people think of Arlington as a place with a lot of money, but what they don’t realize, is the “cheapest” homes for people who just want to live in the County is going to increase. It’s hard to even find a house in N. Arlington under $600k that won’t be snatched up by a builder to be torn down. This was sort of true. More new construction actually sold in 2014, but there were a ton of new builds that hit the market in 2015, and nearly 45 remain on the market as we start 2016.

3. Prices will increase. I expect to see a bigger increase in sale price in 2015 as the market continues to see higher dollar sales. This was true. Prices increased almost 3% over 2014.

4. Inventory will increase, but stabilize. I don’t expect to see a shortage of inventory nor do I think we’ll have a surplus of homes. I think we’ll enter into a balanced market (versus a sellers or buyers market). We are definitely in a sellers market right now, as we gear up for 2016. We did have a balanced market over the summer into the fall, but we ended the year with an extreme sellers market.

5. Percentage of first-time home buyers will increase. I have no way of tracking the County sales by first-time buyer or not, but I can tell you 40% of my 2014 sales were first time buyers. For me personally, this wasn’t true. Only a third of my buyer sales this year were first-time buyers. The rest were either people who had purchased with me years ago and upgraded, or investors. I also had a few that just wanted a new home, but wasn’t drastically different from their old one (i.e. location, layout, price, etc.)

Well 2 for 5 is my worst one yet. Some of them I am happy to be wrong about (rates)! Others I’m so happy to be right – prices.

Stay tuned for my 2016 predictions…let’s hope I do better this time!