2013 Predictions – Reviewed!

Now that 2013 is coming to a close, it’s that time of year again to review those 2013 predictions I made back in January for the year for the real estate market. In 2012, I was 4.5 out of 5. This year I made an extra prediction and I got all of them right (I’m not counting the half that I said “might” happen.) Here’s the original prediction list.

1. Interest rates will rise. Correct! Interest rates now hover around the 4.5% mark on conventional loans for condos and single family homes.

2. Prices will continue to increase, inventory to increase slightly, multiple offers will be the norm. Correct! As of this writing, the cumulative total for inventory was up 9% from this time last year. The year to date average sale price was up 3%. Multiple offers were and continue to happen on every type of property throughout Arlington.

3. Short Sales and Foreclosures will be close to half of what they are now. Correct! Last year, the total market share of foreclosures/short sales was about 5.5%. In 2013, that number came down to 3.2%.

4. FHA premiums will rise, down-payment minimum may decrease. Correct (partially). FHA premiums did rise and even worse, FHA changed the rules so that monthly PMI NEVER goes away on your loan. Down payment minimums didn’t change though, that remains 3.5% of the sale price.

5. Housing market nationally to improve. Correct! There are multiple sources that will verify this data, but Realtor.com’s monthly report shows the average list price increased by 6.9% over 2012. 

6. New Construction will continue to see funding and projects will break ground. Correct! There were over 100 new homes homes built or started in Arlington during 2013, including the Dominion Heights condominium, the second phase of Gaslight Square condominium, and several apartments buildings around town. I expect that trend to continue as you see more and more lots being sold throughout Arlington.

Next up…my 2014 predictions. Stay tuned!